L'ANALISI
I fantasmi della linea blu
di SANDRO VIOLA
È probabile che la violenta sparatoria unleashed yesterday between the Lebanese and Israeli troops on the border between the two countries, with a budget of four deaths (three of Lebanese nationality and an Israeli officer) does not lead quickly to a third war in Lebanon. The Beirut government has no interest in a conflict with Israel.
And the Netanyahu government in Jerusalem is at the moment with other, more intricate skein unravel that the possibility of a war in Lebanon. Here, among other things, would meet on the road between the border and the Litani river international UNIFIL force of 10,000 troops sent into the area four years ago, the United Nations. In fact, most of the first hot comments after clashes yesterday, seem to be oriented to define an isolated incident for now.
But exchanges of artillery on the "Blue Line" (as set by the UN calls the border between Israel and Lebanon), however, appear worrisome. They came after four days because of unexpected events and so far unexplained. Katyusha rockets fell on Ashkelon and Sderot on Saturday in the Sinai Israeli missiles on Sunday and hit Eilat in Israel and Akaba in Jordan. Where are those games board, is yet to be determined. Hamas, which at first had seemed in charge of that artillery fire from a distance, has denied his involvement, and the denial was held, also in Israel, credible. Who else, therefore, may have fired in the last weekend on the south Sinai and the two Red Sea ports crowded with tourists?
Yesterday, Hezbollah has made her the hypothesis. In a short time would have to conclude the investigation of the International Tribunal on the assassination in February 2005 that cost the life of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and it appears that the Court was ready four arrest warrants for as many leaders of Hezbollah. The party, namely, that represents in parliament and the government of Beirut's Muslim extremists. The fact is that Hezbollah is not just a political party. It is especially the central one of a wide spread militia in southern Lebanon, and equipped with modern weaponry and stronger between groups and fundamentalists who are planning the elimination of Israel. As you guessed, weapons and funds to Hezbollah (who are Shiite Muslims) come from Iran.
It would then be the threat of a shutdown of four of its leaders, pushing to the summit of the fundamentalist Lebanese border to provoke a clash with Israeli troops, and perhaps an extension of the fighting, at least for now so as to frustrate the attempts by the international tribunal to put the handcuffs on his men. It is, as we have said, of a hypothesis. That is not far-fetched. Hezbollah has many faithful among the officers of the Lebanese army, and was the Lebanese Army to shoot first in the afternoon yesterday. While with regard to Hamas and its crazy appendices, which may have been the reason to resume rocket attacks on Israel after months and months of good behavior?
In any case, the picture has arisen in a few days is this: resumption of the fall of Katyusha and other rockets into Israeli territory, shoot - after four years - the firefights on the border between Israel and Lebanon. And all this in close proximity, or even the eve of a new start of direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, that the Obama administration has managed after considerable effort and some in bad shape, to raise. Therefore, we are still faced with what has happened so many times in the last three decades, namely operation of sabotage - sometimes made from inside Israel, and Arab extremism sometimes the galaxy - to block the peace negotiations?
Who has more experience of the Israeli-Palestinian, who has assisted on many occasions to an abrupt, traumatic disruption of the so-called peace process because of a sudden attack of terrorists, or of excessive retaliation, absurdly bloody, from the Israeli air force on unarmed Palestinian villages, is inclined to think that this is. The coincidence, although Israeli sources seem to exclude that there is some relationship between the missiles fell on Israel in recent days and exchanges of artillery di ieri sulla frontiera libanese, è troppo nitida per essere trascurata. La regola è infatti questa: all'approssimarsi di nuovi negoziati israelo-palestinesi, gli oltranzisti sparano.
La situazione in Medio Oriente sta quindi, ancora una volta, precipitando? Aveva ragione Vladimir Putin quando in maggio, a Damasco, disse di temere l'avvicinarsi d'una catastrofe nella regione? Come il lettore avrà già colto, sinora sono state elencate in questo articolo soltanto delle ipotesi. Per capire quali potranno essere i seguiti, le conseguenze di questo riaccendersi della tensione sui versanti sud e nord d'Israele, bisognerà infatti attendere ancora qualche giorno. Le eventuali rappresaglie israeliane, un eventuale scesa in field, with its formidable arsenal of Hezbollah. But it may be useful to quote an essay published in June by the authoritative American Council of Foreign Relations, written by Daniel Kurtzer, former ambassador to Egypt and Israel. The essay is titled "A third Lebanon war," and outlines the risks of a conflict on the border between Israel and Lebanon, it does not matter if you started by Hezbollah or Israel. A face to face, through intermediaries, between the Government of Netanyahu and Ahmadinejad's Iran. Israeli bombing on training camps and missile silos in Syria that Hezbollah, the response from fundamentalists on the Galilee, Haifa and maybe perhaps even more deeply in the territory of the Jewish state, short commissioning motion of a gear unstoppable if not a real war. Another hypothesis? Sure, but will agree to note that all hypotheses, there is not one that sounds reassuring.
(04 August 2010)
Source: The Republic
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